Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
